|
Show Selection: |
| #1105611 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 03.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 900 PM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022 Danielle`s cloud pattern has become better organized during the past several hours with banding features gaining symmetry around the center. However, there are still some dry slots disrupting the system`s inner core. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates still supports an intensity of 60 kt, but Danielle could become a hurricane again soon. An ASCAT pass from several hours ago was helpful in adjusting the initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii. The storm has been moving a little faster to the west at 5 kt and is back over the same location where it was on Thursday. A continued slow westward motion is expected into Sunday as the storm remains steered by a blocking ridge to its north. However, a sharp turn to the north is forecast by Sunday night followed by a faster motion to the northeast after that as a trough currently over eastern Canada approaches Danielle. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the left in the short term, but ends up to the east of the previous track at 96 and 120 h, trending toward the latest consensus aids. Danielle is expected to gradually pull away from its own cool SST wake, and since the atmospheric conditions appear generally favorable, slow strengthening seems likely during the next day or two. Beyond a couple of days, however, sharply cooler SSTs, drier air, and an increase in vertical wind shear should end the strengthening trend and induce some weakening. Danielle is expected to become fully extratropical by day 5 when it merges with the approaching trough and moves over SSTs cooler than 20C. The NHC intensity forecast is again an update of the previous one and remains in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 38.0N 44.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 38.1N 45.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 38.4N 45.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 39.0N 44.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 39.9N 44.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 40.8N 43.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 41.7N 41.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 44.2N 36.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 46.7N 30.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
