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| #1105651 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 03.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 03 2022 Danielle has, once again, become a hurricane. The satellite presentation consists of a single, primary curved band wrapping around approximately 95 percent of the surface circulation center. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are a unanimous T-4.0, yielding 65 kt which is the initial intensity for this advisory. The environment appears conducive for gradual strengthening during the short term. Beyond the 48-hour period, however, decreasing oceanic temperatures, an increasingly stable environment, and increasing vertical wind shear should induce a slow weakening trend. The latest Florida State Cyclone Phase Analysis, using the GFS, shows Danielle commencing an extratropical transition on the 6th. In that model, the cyclone maintains a moderate to deep warm core but becomes highly asymmetric (frontal characteristics) in the lower troposphere around the 8th. The analysis and the SHIPS statistical intensity model show Danielle completing its transition near the end of the 5-day forecast period with a well-developed cold core above 600 mb. The NHC forecast follows suit and shows Danielle as an extratropical cyclone at 120 h. The official intensity forecast now shows a peak intensity of 80 kt in 36 hours and agrees with the NOAA HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus aids. Danielle has been drifting toward the west during the past several hours and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday as the hurricane remains in weak steering currents to the south of high pressure anchored over the North Atlantic. Afterward, a turn to the north is forecast by Sunday night, followed by an acceleration toward the northeast in response to a deep-layer trough moving over the Canadian Maritimes and toward Danielle. The NHC forecast is an update of the previous one through 72 hours, and is adjusted slightly south to lie closer to the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 38.1N 45.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 38.2N 45.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 38.7N 45.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 39.5N 44.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 40.4N 43.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 41.4N 42.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 42.4N 40.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 44.5N 35.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 46.1N 28.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts |
