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| #1105685 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 04.Sep.2022) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 500 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022 ...EARL PASSING NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING IMPACTS IN PUERTO RICO, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 64.9W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF ST. THOMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Earl. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 64.9 West. Earl is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn toward the northwest and then north is forecast to begin tonight and continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and then move away from the islands tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, across the Leeward Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico on Sunday. Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are also possible, especially across the central interior region of Puerto Rico. WIND: Gusty winds, especially in squalls, are possible across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
