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| #1105688 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 04.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 500 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022 There has been little overall change in the satellite presentation of Danielle overnight. Curved convective bands wrap around the center, with a large ragged banded eye-like feature evident at times. There is a large range in the satellite intensity estimates this morning with objective estimates much lower than the subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Although the SAB Dvorak estimate increased to T4.5 (77 kt) at 06Z, given the general steady state of the system`s organization since the previous advisory, the initial intensity remains 65 kt, which is a blend of the various estimates and is in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak satellite classification. Danielle is forecast to remain over SSTs of around 27C and in a low shear environment during the next 24 to 36 hours. As a result, most of the intensity guidance calls for some intensification during that time, and the NHC forecast follows suit. After that time, gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause slow weakening. By days 4 and 5, increasing shear and the system`s transition into a post-tropical cyclone are likely to cause additional weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the IVCN and HFIP corrected consensus models. The hurricane has been meandering overnight but a slow northward motion should begin this morning. Danielle is forecast to gradually accelerate to the northeast beginning on Monday as deep-layer trough moves over eastern Canada. By 72 hours, the storm should turn east-northeastward within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The latest dynamical model guidance predicts a slightly faster motion over much of the forecast period, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new forecast is not as fast as the TCVA consensus model, therefore future modifications regarding the forward speed of the cyclone may be required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 38.1N 45.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 38.5N 45.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 39.2N 44.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 40.3N 43.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 41.2N 42.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 42.1N 40.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 43.1N 38.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 45.3N 32.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 47.1N 23.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown |
