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| #1105870 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 AM 05.Sep.2022) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 05 2022 ...EARL NOW A 65-MPH TROPICAL STORM... ...FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 65.3W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Earl. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 65.3 West. Earl is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow motion to the north-northwest or north is forecast to continue for the next 24 to 48 hours followed by a gradual turn to the north-northeast thereafter. NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data earlier indicated that the maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible later today, with little change in strength expected tomorrow. Earl could still become a hurricane later this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches, across the Leeward Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Monday. Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are also possible, especially across the central interior region of Puerto Rico. Locally considerable flood impacts are possible in areas that will receive heavier rainfall totals. WIND: Winds are diminishing across the the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin |
