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| #1105977 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 06.Sep.2022) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 500 AM AST Tue Sep 06 2022 The deep convective blow-up that occurred last evening and led to Earl strengthening just shy of hurricane strength was quickly obliterated by strong shear around the issuance of the previous advisory. In fact, after measuring a pressure as low as 991 mb early in their flight, the NOAA Hurricane Hunters reported that the central pressure had risen to near 998 mb based on the final dropsonde released near the center. Some deep convection continues near and to the northeast of the estimated center, but based on the degraded structure from earlier, the intensity is estimated to be 55 kt. This value agrees with the latest Dvorak Data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB. The remnant cirrus shield is obscuring the low-level center, so the initial position is based on interpolation from the previous forecast. Earl is moving just west of due north, or 350/6 kt, and it should continue a slow northward path through a break in the subtropical ridge during the next 36 hours. After that time, a deep-layer trough sliding off the U.S. east coast is expected to impart a faster north-northeastward and then northeastward motion into the upcoming weekend. The updated NHC track forecast lies very close to the previous official prediction during the first 3 days, situated among the various multi-model consensus aids. On days 4 and 5, however, the new forecast is faster and to the east of the previous one, following the trend noted in most of the models. UW-CIMSS and SHIPS analyses indicate that deep-layer shear over Earl is from the west-southwest at 30-35 kt. Although the thermodynamic environment is plenty favorable for intensification, continued moderate to strong shear could put the breaks on significant strengthening until Earl turns and moves in the same direction as the shear vector, which should be in 2-3 days. At about the same time, Earl could also benefit from a positive interaction with a mid- to upper-level trough located over the western Atlantic. While the intensity forecast is highly uncertain, Earl is still expected to become a hurricane during the next couple of days, and possibly reach major hurricane strength in 3-4 days. Earl`s center is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda in about 3 days. However, the size of the wind field of the tropical cyclone is expected to increase significantly, and interests on the island should continue to monitor the progress of the storm closely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 23.4N 65.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 24.1N 65.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 25.0N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 26.2N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 27.8N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 29.6N 64.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 31.6N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 37.2N 55.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 42.8N 47.9W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg |
