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| #1106084 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 06.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 AM GMT Wed Sep 07 2022 This morning`s conventional satellite presentation indicates little change in Danielle`s cloud pattern since yesterday morning. However, a recent SSMI/S microwave image shows a subtle vertical tilt toward the east. The initial intensity is held at 65 kt for this advisory and is based on a blend of the subjective and AiDT objective satellite intensity estimates and an earlier STAR SAR/S1 surface wind retrieval that indicated winds of 70 kt. Danielle should remain over marginally warm waters for the next 12-18 hours. Subsequently, little change in strength is expected during that time. By early Thursday, Danielle will move over a sharp surface temperature gradient of 22C or less. This negative oceanic contribution, combined with the loss of dynamic forcing after the cyclone merges with the approaching baroclinic system, should induce a slow weakening trend through the end of the period. Danielle`s initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 060/11 kt. There is no significant change to the NHC forecast philosophy. Danielle should continue accelerating in response to a vigorous baroclinic system approaching from the northwest Atlantic east of the Newfoundland coast. Danielle is forecast to interact with the system mentioned above late Thursday night. On Friday, the two systems are predicted to merge and become a larger and strong extratropical low with asymmetric deep warm core characteristics typical of warm seclusions. Over the weekend, the large post-tropical low is expected to turn east-southeastward and maintain this general motion through early next week. Danielle is producing a vast area of very rough seas over the central-north Atlantic. More information can be found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts for the west Central and east Central sections issued under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high- seas-forecast FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 42.7N 39.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 43.6N 37.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 45.4N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 47.6N 32.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/0000Z 50.0N 32.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 09/1200Z 50.9N 34.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0000Z 48.9N 34.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0000Z 45.3N 26.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z 43.1N 18.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts |
