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| #1106123 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 AM 07.Sep.2022) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Earl Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 500 AM AST Wed Sep 07 2022 ...EARL FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 65.9W ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 65.9 West. Earl is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a slow northward motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast and then northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin on Thursday and continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Earl is expected to become a major hurricane late Thursday or Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning Thursday afternoon. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) across Bermuda through Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through Friday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |
