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| #1106156 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 07.Sep.2022) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Earl Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 07 2022 ...EARL FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN US COASTLINE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 65.7W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 65.7 West. Earl is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a continued northward motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast and then northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin on Thursday and continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (135 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Earl is expected to become a major hurricane on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning Thursday afternoon. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) across Bermuda through Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight and the U.S. east coast shortly thereafter. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin |
