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| #1106158 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 07.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 PM GMT Wed Sep 07 2022 Danielle is an impressive hurricane for so far north and east in the Atlantic Ocean, thanks to near-record warm SSTs in the vicinity and a high-latitude blocking pattern. Satellite images show that the cyclone has a large eye with a broken eyewall, although recently the eyewall convection has degraded a bit. The current intensity is set to 70 kt, a blend of the recent TAFB/SAB fixes. A recent scatterometer pass also show that the hurricane has grown in size, and this is reflected in the analysis and size forecast. Additionally, drifting buoy 41047 has reported 984.7 mb well outside of the eye, and the central pressure has been lowered to be in better agreement with this data. The hurricane is already showing some signs of extratropical transition, with the cloud pattern starting to elongate on the northern side. This is a harbinger of an incoming trough which, in combination with cold SSTs, should result in a quick extratropical transition of Danielle in about 24 hours. Global and regional hurricane models are in good agreement on a gradual decline in wind speeds during the forecast period, and little change was made to the previous NHC intensity forecast. Danielle is moving northeastward at about 14 kt. The cyclone is expected to execute a large counterclockwise loop due to a mid-latitude trough diving southward from the Canadian Maritimes. Danielle should merge with this trough and be the dominant feature as it moves east-southeastward across the north Atlantic. Only small changes were made to the last forecast, and the new forecast is close to the Atlantic tropical cyclone consensus track aid TVCA. The tropical cyclone continues to produce a large area of very rough seas over the central-north Atlantic. More information can be found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts for the west Central and east Central sections issued under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high- seas-forecast FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 43.7N 36.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 45.0N 34.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 47.1N 31.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0000Z 49.5N 31.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1200Z 50.1N 33.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 10/0000Z 48.6N 33.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1200Z 46.6N 30.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1200Z 42.5N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1200Z 42.0N 11.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake |
