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| #1106173 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:56 PM 07.Sep.2022) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 200 PM AST Wed Sep 07 2022 ...EARL MOVING NORTHWARD WITH 85 MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 65.7W ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 65.7 West. Earl is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a continued northward motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast and then northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin on Thursday and continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda on Thursday night. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Earl is expected to become a major hurricane on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 974 mb (28.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning Thursday afternoon. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) across Bermuda through Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight and the U.S. east coast shortly thereafter. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin |
