Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
 
Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#1106194 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 07.Sep.2022)
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022
900 PM GMT Wed Sep 07 2022

Danielle has generally changed little since this morning and it
remains an impressive hurricane for being at a relatively
high latitude of around 45 N. The system continues to have a
large eye with a fairly symmetric convective pattern surrounding it.
The Dvorak estimates at 18Z range from 65 to 77 kt, and on this
basis, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt.

A mid-to upper-level trough is quickly approaching Danielle, and
it should cause an increase in shear soon. The higher shear,
interaction with the trough, and sharply cooler SSTs along the
predicted track should cause Danielle to complete extratropical
transition on Thursday and cause the cyclone to gradually decay.
The intensity models are in good agreement, and the NHC intensity
forecast is just an update of the previous one.

Danielle is moving northeastward at 14 kt, which is the fastest this
system has moved in quite some time. This general motion should
continue through tonight, however, a slow down and counterclockwise
loop is expected to occur on Thursday and Friday when Danielle
interacts with the trough that is expected to cut off. After that
time, a faster motion to the southeast is forecast, which should
take the extratropical cyclone toward western Europe by the end of
the period. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids.

Danielle continues to produce a large area of very rough seas over
the central-north Atlantic. More information can be found in the
High Seas Forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has
information in High Seas Forecasts for the west Central and east
Central sections issued under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web
at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 44.9N 34.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 46.4N 32.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 48.7N 31.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/0600Z 50.4N 31.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/1800Z 49.7N 33.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 10/0600Z 47.3N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1800Z 45.3N 27.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1800Z 42.1N 17.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1800Z 42.3N 10.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi