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| #1106238 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 07.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 AM GMT Thu Sep 08 2022 Danielle is beginning to feel the effects of an approaching mid-to upper-level trough just to its west. There has been some erosion of the deep convection over the southern portion of the circulation, likely due to increasing southwesterly shear, while the eye has filled with cloud cover. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates have overall lowered since the previous advisory, and a blend of these values suggest the cyclone`s initial intensity has decreased to 65 kt. The cyclone is expected to undergo extratropical transition through Thursday morning due to the higher shear, interaction with the trough, and sharply cooler SSTs along its forecast track. These conditions are also expected to cause Danielle to gradually weaken. The latest NHC intensity forecast was tweaked slightly lower than the previous one, and closely follows the various multi-model consensus values. Danielle is moving northeastward at 15 kt, and this general motion should continue through tonight. A slow down and counterclockwise loop is expected to occur on Thursday and Friday when the cyclone interacts with the trough that is expected to cut off. After that time, a faster motion to the southeast is forecast, which should take the extratropical cyclone toward western Europe by the end of the period. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the latest consensus aids. Danielle continues to produce a large area of very rough seas over the central-north Atlantic. More information can be found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts for the west Central and east Central sections issued under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high- seas-forecast FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 45.6N 32.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 47.2N 30.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 49.3N 30.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/1200Z 50.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/0000Z 48.6N 32.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 10/1200Z 45.8N 28.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z 44.0N 24.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0000Z 41.6N 15.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0000Z 42.9N 9.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto |
