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| #1106242 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 07.Sep.2022) TCDAT1 Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 07 2022 Earl has resumed intensifying this evening. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a maximum flight-level wind of 107 kt (which reduces to an intensity of about 95 kt), and the central pressure has fallen to 970 mb. Both SFMR and dropsonde data support surface winds of 80 kt. Onboard radar has also confirmed a rather large eye of almost 60 miles (90 km) and a fairly symmetric wind field. The initial intensity is increased to 85 kt as a blend of all available aircraft data, and considering the drop in pressure. Aircraft center fixes confirm that Earl is still moving northward at about 8 kt. This motion is expected to gradually turn north-northeastward and northeastward and accelerate as Earl moves between a mid-level ridge to the southeast, and a digging mid-latitude trough to the northwest in the next couple of days. The trough is forecast to capture Earl, however there is some uncertainty in the model guidance to the timing of this interaction resulting in a larger spread in the along-track positions beyond 72 hours. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous forecast and close to the model consensus aids. The apparent decrease in deep-layer vertical wind shear has likely allowed Earl to strengthen. Global model guidance suggests the shear will continue to abate over the next 36 hours and with atmospheric conditions remaining conducive, further intensification is expected. The NHC intensity forecast now shows a quicker rate of strengthening to a peak of 115 kt at 36 hours. Earl is expected to undergo extra-tropical transition in a few days when it moves to higher latitudes and interacts with an upper-level trough. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although Earl`s center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda, the wind field is expected to grow, with tropical-storm-force winds forecast to spread across the island beginning late Thursday and continuing through Friday morning. Hurricane-force winds are possible on Bermuda late Thursday or Thursday night if Earl`s track shifts farther west than is currently forecast. 2. Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight and the U.S. East Coast shortly thereafter. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 27.2N 65.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 28.6N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 30.7N 63.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 33.3N 61.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 36.6N 57.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 40.2N 53.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 42.9N 49.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0000Z 45.0N 44.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0000Z 46.4N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Bucci/Pasch |
