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| #1106273 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 08.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 900 AM GMT Thu Sep 08 2022 Danielle is losing its tropical characteristics. The deep convection has completely eroded across the southwestern portion of the circulation. There is no longer an eye-like feature as seen yesterday, and the system is taking on characteristics more similar to the comma-shaped cloud shield of a mid-latitude cyclone. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates suggest that Danielle is no longer a hurricane, and the initial intensity has been decreased to 60 kt for this advisory. The cyclone is expected to quickly complete extratropical transition through this morning due to higher shear, interaction with a mid- to upper-level trough just to its west, and cool SSTs along its forecast track. These conditions are also expected to cause Danielle to continue weakening through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast was once again tweaked slightly lower than the previous one, mainly to adjust for the lower initial intensity. Danielle is moving northeastward at 14 kt, and this general motion should continue for the next few hours. A slow down and counterclockwise loop is expected to occur later today and Friday when the cyclone interacts with the trough that is expected to cut off. After that time, a faster motion to the southeast is forecast, which should take the extratropical cyclone toward western Europe by the end of the period. The NHC track forecast was adjusted a little to the right after the counterclockwise loop due to an overall shift in the model guidance. Danielle continues to produce a large area of very rough seas over the central-north Atlantic. More information can be found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts for the west Central and east Central sections issued under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high- seas-forecast. Meteo France`s High Seas Forecast also includes information regarding Danielle at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 46.8N 32.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 48.5N 30.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/0600Z 49.9N 31.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/1800Z 49.5N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/0600Z 47.2N 31.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 10/1800Z 44.4N 26.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0600Z 42.8N 21.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0600Z 41.5N 14.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0600Z 43.3N 9.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto |
