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| #110629 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 13.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006 GORDON HAS DEVELOPED A RATHER WELL-DEFINED EYE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 77 KT...AND THE ORGANIZATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE SINCE THE 1145 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 80 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. GORDON HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN PARTICULARLY IN THE NEAR TERM...HOWEVER BOTH THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ONLY TAKE GORDON TO AROUND 85 KT WHICH COULD ACTUALLY OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES GORDON CONSERVATIVELY TO 90 KT IN 12 HOURS...BUT GORDON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME THIS SEASON'S FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE ON THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND. WITH THAT SAID...THE INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD THIS AFTERNOON. IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...GORDON IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A RESULT OF COOLER SSTS AND A LESS CONDUCIVE LOWER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 010/8. GORDON IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TO THE NORTH BETWEEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE TO THE WEST. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF GORDON WHICH IS MOST LIKELY THE CAUSE FOR THE SOMEWHAT SLOW INITIAL MOTION. THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER THE SPEED IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND TAKE GORDON NORTHEASTWARD EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND ALONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 26.0N 57.9W 80 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 27.4N 57.4W 90 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 29.2N 56.6W 90 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 30.8N 55.5W 85 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 32.1N 54.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 34.0N 52.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 36.5N 50.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 18/1200Z 40.0N 44.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN |
