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| #1106416 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 08.Sep.2022) TCDAT1 Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 08 2022 The satellite and airborne radar presentation of Earl has continued to degrade this evening. The eye has expanded to 50 n mi wide, become more ragged in appearance, and is open to the south. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system has only found peak flight-level winds of 89 kt and surface wind measurements of 75 kt. The minimum central pressure has also risen to a reported 964 mb. Based on these data and accounting for potential undersampling of the wind field, the initial intensity has been lowered to 80 kt on this advisory cycle. The hurricane is moving north-northeastward at 13 kt. The forward motion is expected to increase as Earl is caught up in the southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge to the east, and a digging mid-latitude trough to the northwest. A mid-level trough moving off the eastern seaboard is forecast to capture the storm and slow Earl`s motion off the Canadian coast. There is some uncertainty in timing of this interaction which is leading to a larger spread in model track guidance in the 60-96 h forecast range. Statistical model guidance insists that Earl has another day or so of conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions in which to strengthen. However, the recent degradation in structural organization of the hurricane may be difficult to overcome in a short period of time. The peak intensity of the official forecast has been lowered to 100 kt at 24 hours. Beyond a day, the vertical wind shear is predicted to increase dramatically and induce rapid weakening, and extratropical transition is likely to occur within 48 hours. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although Earl`s center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda, tropical-storm-force winds are expected on the island tonight into tomorrow morning. 2. Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and are expected to reach the U.S. East Coast tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 31.3N 63.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 33.3N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 36.9N 57.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 40.7N 53.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 43.3N 51.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/1200Z 44.2N 50.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0000Z 45.0N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0000Z 45.8N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0000Z 46.5N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Bucci/Pasch |
