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| #1106527 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 09.Sep.2022) TCDAT1 Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 500 PM AST Fri Sep 09 2022 Earl`s large (and at times ragged) eye and surrounding convection were finally organized enough at 1800 UTC to get consensus Dvorak classifications of 5.0 from TAFB and SAB, an indication that the hurricane has strengthened slightly with an estimated intensity of 90 kt. Even then, a mid-latitude frontal feature is quickly approaching from the northwest, a sign that Earl isn`t likely to last much longer as a relatively symmetric hurricane. In fact, since 18Z, Earl`s eye has already become partially obscured by clouds once again. The hurricane continues to accelerate toward the northeast, and is forecast to accelerate further during the next 12 h ahead of the aforementioned mid-latitude trough. Earl is forecast to merge with this feature and slow abruptly in about 36 to 48 h. A slightly faster eastward motion is forecast around day 4-5. The track model guidance remains tightly packed around the multi-model consensus, which is the basis of the NHC forecast once again. Only small modifications were made to the track forecast with this advisory. Earl has a few more hours before it begins extratropical transition and some very short-term further intensification can`t be completely ruled out. However, by tomorrow morning Earl should begin to steadily weaken as it becomes post-tropical. As noted before, the wind field of Earl will expand even as its peak winds begin to decrease, which will cause it to continue to produce large waves and swell across a large portion of the western Atlantic. This will contribute to a high risk of rip currents across the U.S. East Coast, Bermuda, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland through the weekend. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast and are expected to reach Nova Scotia and Newfoundland tonight and on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 35.9N 58.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 39.0N 55.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 42.3N 53.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 11/0600Z 43.4N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/1800Z 43.8N 51.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/0600Z 44.4N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1800Z 44.7N 48.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1800Z 45.1N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1800Z 46.0N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky |
