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| #1106638 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 AM 10.Sep.2022) TCDAT1 Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 10 2022 Earl continues to undergo extratropical transition as it merges with the mid-latitude trough seen in GOES-16 airmass imagery near and to the west of the hurricane. The central convection is starting to shear away from the low-level center and cold-air clouds are wrapping around the south side of the circulation. The initial intensity is reduced to 80 kt based on a combination of subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates. Earl should complete extratropical transition during the next 6 h or so, with the system maintaining hurricane-force winds during this time. After that, the cyclone is expected to gradually weaken during the next 72 h as it moves over the open North Atlantic. The new intensity forecast has been adjusted downward during the first 48 h to match the trend of the intensity guidance, and then is similar to the previous forecast. Earl has turned a little to the left and slowed its forward motion since the last advisory, with the initial motion now 025/25 kt. As Earl merges with the mid-latitude trough, an additional significant decease in forward speed is expected during the next 12 h, followed by a slow northeastward motion that should continue through Sunday night. Subsequently, Earl should be steered generally eastward by the mid-latitude westerlies. The new forecast track has been shifted to the northwest of the previous track during the first 36 h and is close to the previous track thereafter. The northwestward shift of the track, along with Earl`s large wind field, is expected to lead to strong winds occurring over the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland beginning this afternoon and continuing through Sunday. For additional information on impacts in Newfoundland, please monitor forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Strong winds are expected over the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland beginning this afternoon and continuing through Sunday, after Earl becomes a post-tropical low. 2. Large swells generated by Earl will affect Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 42.9N 53.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 44.4N 51.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 11/1200Z 45.0N 51.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/0000Z 45.2N 50.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/1200Z 45.4N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 13/0000Z 45.3N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/1200Z 45.3N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1200Z 45.5N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1200Z 46.5N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven |
