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| #1106681 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 10.Sep.2022) TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Earl Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 500 PM AST Sat Sep 10 2022 Satellite imagery shows that Earl has completed extratropical transition, with well-developed frontal features and a central core that is void of deep convection. While recent scatterometer overpasses did not sample the strongest winds, it showed that Earl remains both large and powerful as an extratropical low. So, the initial intensity is set at 75 kt at this time. The global models are in good agreement that the system should gradually weaken during the forecast period, with the maximum winds dropping below hurricane force between 12-24 h. The intensity forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance and has some minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Earl has slowed its forward speed considerably since the last advisory, with the motion now 025/9 kt. A slow movement toward the northeast is expected during the next 36 h as the system merges with a mid-latitude trough. After that, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to move eastward through 96 h, followed by an east-northeastward motion. The track guidance has shifted southward between 36-72 h, and the new forecast track is adjusted southward during that time as well. The forecast slow motion, along with Earl`s large wind field, will cause strong winds over the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland from this afternoon through Sunday. For additional information on impacts in Newfoundland, please monitor forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada. The is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Earl. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php KEY MESSAGES: 1. Strong winds are expected over the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland this afternoon through Sunday. 2. Large swells generated by Earl will affect Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 43.6N 52.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 11/0600Z 44.3N 52.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 11/1800Z 44.8N 51.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/0600Z 45.0N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/1800Z 44.9N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 13/0600Z 44.7N 47.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/1800Z 44.7N 44.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1800Z 45.5N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1800Z 47.5N 36.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven |
