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| #110691 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 13.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2006 GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. THE EYE IS CLEAR AND HAS WARMED TO 14 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE HURRICANE BEING INFLUENCED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS AIDING IN THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0 AND 4.5 RESPECTIVELY...AND ADT 3-HOUR AVERAGE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE 5.2. SINCE THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT. THERE ARE NO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD HAMPER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND GORDON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. FOR THE FIRST 48 TO 72 HOURS...GORDON WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN HURRICANE STATUS. THEREAFTER...COOLER SSTS AND A MORE HOSTILE LOWER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE GORDON TO WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/10. THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING PATTERN. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE GFDL...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 27.0N 57.5W 95 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 28.5N 57.0W 100 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 30.2N 55.9W 95 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 31.5N 54.7W 90 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 32.5N 53.7W 85 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 34.0N 52.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 37.0N 48.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 41.5N 40.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN |
