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| #110740 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 PM 13.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2006 GORDON HAS DEVELOPED AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN WITH A VERY DISTINCT EYE. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS AROUND 0000 UTC WERE ABOUT 5.5 WHILE THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE...ADT...FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN IS CURRENTLY GIVING 3-HOUR ESTIMATES OF 6.0. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 105 KNOTS...WHICH IS A VALUE IN BETWEEN THESE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THIS MAKES GORDON A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BUT THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GORDON SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD WEAKEN IN A DAY OR SO CAUSING GORDON TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. BY DAY FOUR...AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL KICK GORDON OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 27.8N 57.1W 105 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 29.3N 56.3W 105 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 31.0N 55.0W 100 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 31.7N 54.3W 90 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 32.5N 53.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 33.5N 52.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 37.0N 48.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 41.0N 40.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
