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| #1108275 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 21.Sep.2022) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022 300 AM GMT Thu Sep 22 2022 Convective bursts continue near the center of Gaston with some banding evident over the western portions of the circulation. Dvorak CI-numbers from SAB and TAFB still support an initial intensity of 55 kt. Unfortunately, ASCAT missed the system earlier, and there has been no recent scatterometer data to provide a better assessment of the system`s strength and wind field. Gaston as turned east-northeastward and is not moving at 065/15 kt. The overall track forecast reasoning remains unchanged but there has been a shift in the models toward a faster and more southerly track, primarily after 48 hours. The cyclone should continue east-northeastward to eastward during the next day or so. After that time, an amplifying ridge is expected to cause Gaston to slow down and turn southward. After 48 hours, the track guidance now shows a faster southwestward or westward motion as the ridge builds and shifts northeastward. The updated NHC track has been adjusted accordingly, but it is still north of the latest consensus aids. Therefore, additional modifications to the official forecast is possible in future advisories. Little change in strength is predicted in the short term, but gradual weakening is expected after that time as Gaston moves over cooler waters and into a drier air mass. Gaston is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone in 60-72 hours due to these more unfavorable conditions. Gaston could produce tropical-storm-force winds in portions of the western Azores beginning tonight. Interests there should continue to monitor the forecasts for this system. For additional information, see warnings and products issued by the meteorological service in the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 39.6N 38.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 40.4N 35.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 40.8N 31.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 40.3N 29.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 39.4N 29.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 38.9N 30.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 25/0000Z 38.8N 31.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 26/0000Z 39.0N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 27/0000Z 38.7N 38.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Brown |
