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| #1108396 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 22.Sep.2022) TCDAT2 Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 500 PM AST Thu Sep 22 2022 The satellite presentation of Fiona has recovered somewhat since this morning with the eye becoming a little better defined, and a ring of convection with cloud tops of -65 to-70 degrees surrounding the center. There is a fairly large spread in the subjective and objective satellite estimates, which range from 102 kt to 124 kt. The initial wind speed remains near the mid point of estimates at 115 kt, which was supported by the earlier aircraft reconnaissance data. The next reconnaissance flight is scheduled into the hurricane this evening. The hurricane continues to accelerate north-northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 025/17 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed from the previous advisory. Fiona is forecast to continue to accelerate north-northeastward tonight, with the hurricane making its closest approach to Bermuda overnight or early tomorrow. On Friday, a vigorous mid-latitude trough that is forecast to move off the coast of the northeastern United States should cause Fiona to turn northward toward Atlantic Canada. The dynamic models are in good agreement that the cyclone will pass over portions of eastern Nova Scotia by Saturday morning, and then move more slowly northward over the Gulf of St. Lawrence and portions of Newfoundland and Labrador over the weekend. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the official forecast lies near the center of the model envelope. Fiona is expected to remain in a low shear environment and over warm water for the next 12-24 hours. Therefore, little change in intensity is expected during that time. After 24 hours, the system will interact with the aforementioned trough, and Fiona is forecast to transition into a powerful post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds Friday night. Gradual weakening is predicted later in the weekend while the system moves northward over Newfoundland and Labrador. The cyclone is forecast to grow in size as it approaches Atlantic Canada, and earlier ASCAT data showed that the tropical-storm-force winds have already expanded over the eastern portion of the storm. The initial and forecast wind radii have been adjusted accordingly. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight through Friday morning. 2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are becoming increasingly likely. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for much of Atlantic Canada. 3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 30.4N 69.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 32.8N 67.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 37.8N 63.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 43.8N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/1800Z 47.3N 60.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0600Z 50.4N 59.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/1800Z 53.9N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/1800Z 60.9N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/1800Z 64.3N 57.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown |
