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| #1108520 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 23.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022 200 PM CVT Fri Sep 23 2022 Satellite images indicate that the strong tropical wave that NHC has been tracking for several days over western Africa has developed a well-defined surface center over the far eastern Atlantic with organized bands of convection. Dropsonde data from a DC-8 aircraft with the NASA field program Convective Processes EXperiment-Cabo Verde (CPEX-CV) has been quite useful in determining the central pressure and surface circulation definition of the low, with the central pressure of 1003 mb based on the dropsondes. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, perhaps conservatively since the eastern side of the circulation has not been sampled by scatterometer or aircraft data. The system is moving north-northwestward at about 10 kt. A large break in the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge should cause this system to move generally northward ahead of a mid-level trough before turning westward and accelerating as a shallow system beneath the low-level ridge. The forecast is close to the model consensus, with heavier weight being placed on the global models than the regional hurricane track models. The depression has about a day over warm water in light to moderate shear before all the models blast the system with strong upper- level southwesterly winds. Most of the guidance shows this system becoming a tropical storm before weakening significantly by late this weekend and dissipating early next week. The official wind speed prediction is near the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance HCCA. Note that 2 to 4 inches of rain is possible over the Canary Islands through this weekend due to a combination of the mid-level trough and moisture from this system, which is a bit unusual for that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 17.9N 19.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 19.2N 20.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 21.0N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 22.3N 21.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 23.2N 21.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 23.9N 21.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z 24.3N 21.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z 26.0N 26.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
