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| #1108569 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 23.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022 800 PM CVT Fri Sep 23 2022 A large burst of convection has been occurring in the northeastern quadrant of the system today, with other shallow banding features to the southeast of the center. Overall, the cyclone looks better than this morning and resembles a sheared tropical storm, which is confirmed by the Dvorak pattern-T of 2.5 (35 kt) from SAB. Thus the wind speed is set to 35 kt, making this system the 8th tropical storm of the season. Hermine continues moving north-northwestward, now about 10 kt. Global model guidance is consistent on the cyclone moving northward through a large break in the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge. The most significant change is that the storm could hold together a little longer in a marginal environment, which causes the forecast track to tug a little to the northeast before a weakening Hermine would move westward as a shallow system beneath the low-level ridge. The new forecast is shifted to the north and east, but is not as far northeast as the GFS or HWRF models. The storm has about a day over lukewarm water before all the models hit the system with strong upper-level southwesterly winds. There is a minority solution in the models where the upper-trough cuts off, somewhat lessening the shear, but for now the NHC forecast stays closer to the faster dissipation scenario. Either way, Hermine should dissipate early next week due to very strong shear and dry air entrainment cutting off any deep convection. The official intensity forecast is a little higher than the last one, near the various consensus aids. Note that 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are possible over the Canary Islands through this weekend due to a combination of a mid-latitude trough and moisture from Hermine. This rainfall could cause some flash flooding in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 18.6N 20.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 19.8N 21.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 21.6N 21.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 23.1N 21.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 24.1N 20.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 24.5N 21.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z 24.8N 21.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z 26.5N 25.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
