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| #110859 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 14.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006 THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF GORDON REMAINS ALMOST UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING. A 20 N MI WIDE EYE CONTINUES TO EXIST WITH DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING IT. DESPITE 20 TO 25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IMPINGING UPON THE HURRICANE...GORDON MAINTAINS MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 OR 102 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS EARLIER TODAY AS WELL. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECASTS GORDON TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH 5 DAYS...BUT THE WEAKENING COULD BE TOO FAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GORDON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH FIVE DAYS WHICH COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND COMMENCES A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH 4 DAYS AND THEN LEVELS OUT THE INTENSITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/10. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT AND ANTICIPATES A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENTS IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL MOTION HAS YET TO HINT AT A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. WITH THAT SAID...THE FORECAST MOTION OF GORDON IS THE MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST. AFTER 72 HOURS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE ALL ACCELERATE GORDON AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID- LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE EARLY PERIODS AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THIS MORNING'S PACKAGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 30.2N 54.9W 105 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 31.3N 54.0W 95 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 32.1N 53.2W 85 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 32.9N 52.3W 75 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 33.8N 51.4W 65 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 37.0N 47.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 40.5N 39.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 43.0N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN |
