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Recon is heading into #92L and it is possible Advisories begin later this morning for NE FL to the SE US coast.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 296 (Idalia) , Major: 296 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 296 (Idalia) Major: 296 (Idalia)
22.3N 102.0W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
W at 24 mph
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#1108619 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 23.Sep.2022)
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0300 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 72.0W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 72.0W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 71.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.7N 73.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.1N 76.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.1N 78.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.6N 80.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.3N 81.5W...NEAR GRAND CAYMAN
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.2N 82.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 24.9N 83.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 28.0N 82.0W...OVER FLORIDA
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 72.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG