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| #1108710 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 24.Sep.2022) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 ...IAN FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 75.2W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in western and central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 75.2 West. Ian is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Sunday, followed by a north-northwestward turn on Monday and a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea today, pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or over the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will then approach western Cuba late Monday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Ian is expected to become a hurricane late Sunday or Sunday night and could be at or near major hurricane strength late Monday when it approaches western Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches) based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica on Sunday. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall: Southern Haiti and southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 14 inches Florida Keys and south Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with local maxima up to 5 inches through Tuesday morning These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding and rises on area streams and rivers across Florida cannot be ruled out through next week given already saturated antecedent conditions. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday. Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in areas of onshore winds on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Sunday and spread westward to Cuba by Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
