|
Show Selection: |
| #1108712 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 24.Sep.2022) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 75.2W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 75.2W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 74.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.5N 76.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.5N 78.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.0N 80.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.8N 82.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.7N 83.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.7N 84.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N 83.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.6N 82.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 75.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART |
