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| #1108805 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 24.Sep.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Hermine Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022 200 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022 Hermine is barely holding on a as a tropical cyclone. Southwesterly vertical wind shear has increased to nearly 30 kt which has stripped away the cyclone`s deep convection across the Canary Islands. The advisory intensity is set at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak CI value from TAFB. The shear is forecast to increase dramatically to 50 kt by 24 h, and 70 kt by 48 h while Hermine remains over marginal SSTs and in a dry thermodynamic environment. Therefore, there is fairly high confidence that sustained organized deep convection will not regenerate near the center of the cyclone, and the system should become a remnant low later this morning. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one. The depression is moving northward at 10 kt, and that motion is expected to continue during the next day or so while Hermine moves in the flow on the west side of a subtropical ridge. After that time, a building surface ridge north of the cyclone should cause it to turn west-northwestward or northwestward. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 22.9N 20.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 24.0N 20.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/0000Z 24.7N 19.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 25.2N 20.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 25.5N 21.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/1200Z 26.1N 23.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto |
