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| #1109112 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 PM 26.Sep.2022) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 ...IAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY... ...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS WILL BEGIN IN WESTERN CUBA VERY SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 83.4W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa * Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas * Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West * Flamingo to Englewood A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West * Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay * Aucilla River to Anclote River * Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line * Saint Johns River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River * Bonita Beach to Englewood A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge * Lake Okeechobee * North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass * Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 83.4 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north with a slightly slower forward speed is expected on Tuesday. A turn toward the north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move near or over western Cuba overnight and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane overnight or early Tuesday when it is near western Cuba, and remain a major hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). An amateur radio operator recently reported that an automated weather station at Cayo Largo, Cuba measured a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h) during the last couple of hours. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa Bay...5-10 ft * Suwannee River to Anclote River...5-8 ft * Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...5-8 ft * Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor... 4-7 ft * Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft * Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound including St. Johns River...2-4 ft * East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida Bay...2-4 ft * Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft * Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft * Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area tonight and early Tuesday. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba beginning tonight. Destructive winds are possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by Tuesday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday into early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the lower Florida Keys and are possible in the watch area in the middle Florida Keys on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through Thursday: * Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches; these rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba. * Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches * Coastal Southwest and Southeast Florida: 4 to 6 inches with local maxima up to 10 inches. * Central West Florida: 6 to 12 inches, with local maxima up to 20 inches. * Northeast Florida: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches. * Remainder of the Central Florida Peninsula: 4 to 8 inches. Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding, and prolonged significant river flooding is likely mid-to-late week across central and northern Florida, southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina. Flash and urban flooding is also possible with rainfall across southern Florida through mid week. Limited flash and river flooding are possible over portions of the Southeast mid-to-late week. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight and Tuesday across the Florida Keys and the southern/central Florida Peninsula. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean, will begin to affect the Florida Keys Tuesday, and will spread northward throughout the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
