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| #1109113 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 26.Sep.2022) TCMAT4 HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 0300 UTC TUE SEP 27 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA * ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY * DRY TORTUGAS A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO * TAMPA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS * LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST * FLAMINGO TO ENGLEWOOD A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST * DRY TORTUGAS * FLORIDA BAY * AUCILLA RIVER TO ANCLOTE RIVER * ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE * SAINT JOHNS RIVER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER * BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS * JUPITER INLET TO ALTAMAHA SOUND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 83.4W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 83.4W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 83.3W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.8N 83.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.5N 83.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.2N 83.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.9N 82.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 28.6N 82.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 31.3N 82.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 35.0N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 83.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
