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| #1109254 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 PM 27.Sep.2022) TCMAT4 HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 2100 UTC TUE SEP 27 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO CHOKOLOSKEE. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FOR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...FLORIDA BAY...AND FOR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF BOCA RATON HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE STORM SURGE WATCH FROM MARINELAND TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A STORM SURGE WARNING. THE STORM SURGE WATCH FROM THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY * DRY TORTUGAS A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO * TAMPA BAY * DRY TORTUGAS * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER * ST. JOHNS RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS * SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER * ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS * FLAMINGO TO ALTAMAHA SOUND * FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * FLORIDA BAY A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST * FLORIDA BAY * MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER * SOUTH OF MARINELAND TO THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 83.2W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 180SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 83.2W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 83.3W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 25.3N 82.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.6N 82.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.6N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...280NE 120SE 140SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.5N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...310NE 120SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.4N 81.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...260NE 130SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.0N 81.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 34.5N 82.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 83.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
