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| #1109460 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 28.Sep.2022) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 28 2022 Over the past 24 hours, convection has been gradually increasing in organization with the well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the west of the Cabo Verde islands. Overnight, we received Metop-B and C scatterometer data that confirmed a closed cyclonic circulation, with peak winds up to at least 30 kt in the deeper convection to the east of the center location. There were even a few higher wind retrievals, but these may have been rain contaminated in the intense convection. Since that time, the convection has remained persistent, and TAFB has been providing a subjective intensity estimate of T2.0/30-kt for the last 12-18 hours. A more recent scatterometer pass also indicates the circulation remains closed and well-defined. Thus, the system can be considered a tropical depression, and the maximum sustained winds will be set at 30-kt for this advisory. After meandering in the same location for the last 2-4 days, the depression now appears to be finally gaining some latitude with the estimated motion at 350/8-kt. The very slow motion over the past few days was related to a large weakness in the steering flow due to a broad and expansive upper-level trough to the north. Low to mid-level ridging is finally starting to nose in from the east over the past 24 hours, and the ongoing northward motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn more north-northwestward. The guidance is in fairly good agreement with this solution, and the initial NHC forecast track follows closely with the reliable consensus aids TVCN and HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA). The depression has a short window to intensify a bit more in the short-term, while the vertical wind shear remains under 10 kt for the next 12-18 hours. However, as the storm gains latitude, it will quickly become highly sheared from the aforementioned upper-level trough that lies along its track. Thus, only slight strengthening is shown in the 12-h forecast followed by a steady state or weakening tropical cyclone in the 24-48 hour forecast period. The system is expected to open up into a trough by 72 hours as it succumbs to the highly unfavorable environment, and this could occur sooner than forecasted. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the majority of the guidance, and also lies near the HCCA aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 16.1N 34.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 17.1N 35.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 19.0N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 20.8N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 23.8N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 26.4N 39.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin |
