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| #1109539 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 28.Sep.2022) TCDAT4 Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft provided the last fix on Ian just before the hurricane made landfall at Cayo Costa, Florida, with the landfall time near at 305 pm EDT. The minimum pressure had risen to about 940 mb at landfall, suggesting that the winds had come down slightly, and the landfall intensity was estimated near 130 kt. While there hasn't been much in situ data recently, satellite images show that the eye has become more cloud filled, and Tampa Doppler radar data is indicating a gradual reduction in winds. The initial intensity is set to 120 kt on this advisory. Further weakening is forecast while Ian moves over central Florida during the next day and emerges into the western Atlantic later on Thursday. While there is a lot of vertical wind shear in the environment there, a favorable trough interaction from a trough in the southern United States is expected to counteract the shear, resulting in Ian staying a strong tropical storm through landfall on the southeast U.S. coast. Little change was made to the intensity forecast, which is near or somewhat above the consensus guidance. The hurricane is moving to the north-northeast at about 8 kt. The aforementioned trough is likely to cause Ian to turn northward over the western Atlantic and to the north-northwest by the weekend. Model guidance is just a bit faster to the north-northeast than the last cycle, and the new forecast is nudged in that direction. The trough will probably cause Ian to transition to an extratropical cyclone in a few days over the southeastern United States, and this new forecast reflects this likelihood. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground level along with destructive waves is ongoing along the southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor. 2. Catastrophic wind damage is occurring along the southwestern coast of Florida in areas near the eyewall of Ian. Hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland to central Florida near the core of Ian through early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central Florida coast overnight through early Thursday. 3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flooding, with major to record river flooding, are expected to continue across portions of central Florida with considerable flooding in northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina. 4. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge on Thursday and Friday along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, with hurricane conditions possible. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 26.9N 82.0W 120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/0600Z 27.8N 81.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1800Z 28.8N 81.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/0600Z 30.0N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 30/1800Z 31.9N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 01/0600Z 34.0N 81.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1800Z 36.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
