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| #1109662 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 29.Sep.2022) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022 500 AM AST Thu Sep 29 2022 Deep convection associated with the depression has become more concentrated overnight, but it remains well to the northeast of the low-level center due to moderate southwesterly vertical shear. Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB remain T2.0 or 30 kt. Objective estimates from UW/CIMSS are slightly higher, but since the current convective burst has not persisted very long, the initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt, in line with the subjective satellite estimates. The cyclone is forecast to move into an area of stronger upper-level southwesterlies, and as a consequence the SHIPS guidance indicates that the shear will increase to more than 30 kt in about 24 hours. Therefore, little change in strength is expected in the short term, and weakening should occur by late tomorrow with the depression becoming a remnant low. The system is forecast degenerate into a trough of low pressure by 48 hours, but the global model guidance suggests this could occur sooner. The initial motion estimate is 320/11 kt. The depression should continue to move generally northwestward for the next day or two within the low- to mid-level flow. The updated track forecast is slightly west of the previous track, but it remains close to the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 17.8N 36.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 19.3N 37.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 21.3N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 23.6N 40.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
