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| #110971 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 15.Sep.2006) TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 41.4W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 45SE 20SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 41.4W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 40.9W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.6N 43.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.8N 45.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.7N 46.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 48.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.5N 50.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 23.5N 53.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 26.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 41.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
