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| #1109763 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:56 PM 29.Sep.2022) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 28A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 200 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 ...IAN FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING, STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA, GEORGIA, AND THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 80.0W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Jupiter Inlet to Vero Beach. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia Line to Little River Inlet * Neuse River * St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Little River Inlet A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Vero Beach Florida to Savannah River * Little River Inlet to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico Sound A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 80.0 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected late today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed Friday night. On the forecast track, Ian will approach the coast of South Carolina on Friday. The center will move farther inland across the Carolinas Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian is expected to become a hurricane again by this evening and make landfall as a hurricane on Friday, with rapid weakening forecast after landfall. Ian is a large cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. A WeatherFlow station in New Smyrna Beach recently reported a sustained wind of 69 mph (111 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River...4-7 ft * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Edisto Beach...4-6 ft * South Santee River to Little River Inlet...3-5 ft * St. Johns River...2-4 ft * East of Little River Inlet to Duck, including Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft * Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft * Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee including Charlotte Harbor... 1-3 ft * Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the Hurricane Warning area starting early Friday, with tropical storm conditions beginning overnight. Tropical storm conditions are now occurring in parts of the warning area on the east coasts of Florida and should spread northward along the Georgia and North Carolina coasts today through Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in northeastern Florida and Georgia today into Friday. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: * East Central to Northeast Florida: Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with storm totals around 20 inches in spots. * Coastal Georgia: 2 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts. * Lowcountry of South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches. * Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across western North Carolina. Major-to-record river flooding will continue across central Florida through next week. Considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across coastal portions of northeast Florida, southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina through Friday. Locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible this weekend across portions of the southern Appalachians, where landslides will be possible as well. Limited flooding is possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible Friday across the coastal Carolinas. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and Florida. Swells will increase along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake |
