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| #110983 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:07 AM 15.Sep.2006) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006 GOES AND METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL STORM. THE CONVECTION IS MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTH WITH NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ALL AROUND. THE OUTFLOW IS PRIMARILY DEFINED TO THE SOUTH AND TO THE WEST. IN FACT...T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED AND SUPPORT INTENSITIES OF AT LEAST 50 KNOTS. I AM ONLY GOING TO MENTION THE WELL-KNOWN PARAMETERS THAT FAVOR INTENSIFICATION...LOW SHEAR AND WARM OCEAN...AND THESE TWO ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND HELENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT A DAY. HELENE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. HELENE IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A RIDGE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A LARGE TROUGH OR WEAKNESS WHICH IS FORECAST TO COVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE IS NOT MUCH MORE TO ADD TO THE TRACK FORECAST EXCEPT THAT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE SINCE MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE... GFDL/GFS/UK/ECMWF MODELS AND SO FORTH... UNANIMOUSLY TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER OPEN WATER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 15.8N 41.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 16.6N 43.1W 60 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 17.8N 45.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 18.7N 46.5W 70 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 19.5N 48.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 21.5N 50.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 23.5N 53.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 26.0N 55.0W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
