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| #1109924 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 30.Sep.2022) TCDAT4 Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Satellite images show that Ian has re-developed deep convection near the center, with frontal features away from the core of the cyclone. Additionally, a primitive eyewall has formed around about half of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently found peak flight-level winds of 80 kt and SFMR winds of 72 kt. Radar data is also showing winds of up to 85 kt around 10 thousand feet, with hurricane-force winds now in the northeastern quadrant. These values support the initial wind speed of 75 kt. NOAA buoy 41004 near the center recently reported a minimum pressure of 981 mb with some wind, which supports the advisory value. Ian is now moving faster to the north, around 12 kt, and should continue to accelerate to the north-northwest later today due to a shortwave trough over the southeastern United States. The new forecast is adjusted a bit to the east, but should still lead to a landfall in South Carolina this afternoon. Little change in intensity is expected before Ian makes landfall, due to competing influences of strong shear versus baroclinic forcing from the trough over water waters. Ian should rapidly transition into an extratropical low tonight after landfall, and dissipate by Saturday night. It should be emphasized that dangerous winds and life-threatening storm surge should rapidly increase during the next few hours in the Storm Surge and Hurricane Warning areas due to Ian moving faster toward the coast. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today along the coasts of the Carolinas within the Storm Surge Warning areas. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected along the coasts of South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina within the Hurricane Warning area soon. Hurricane conditions are possible in North Carolina within the Hurricane Watch area by this afternoon. Preparations should be rushed to completion. 3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue through next week across portions of central Florida. Considerable flooding is expected today across portions of coastal and northeast South Carolina, coastal North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Locally considerable flooding is possible across portions of northwest North Carolina and southern Virginia today into early Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 32.4N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 34.1N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1200Z 36.0N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0000Z 37.5N 80.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
