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| #1109983 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 30.Sep.2022) TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Deep convection has ceased now that Ian has lost its energy source from the Atlantic Ocean, and the circulation has wrapped into cooler surface air. Thus, Ian has transitioned into an extratropical low. The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt based on elevated hurricane-force winds still being observed on radar offshore of eastern South Carolina. Ian continues to move faster to the north, around 13 kt, and should turn to the north-northwest later today due to a shortwave trough over the southeastern United States. Ian should rapidly weaken in the cool airmass and dissipate by early Sunday over western North Carolina or Virginia. No significant changes were made to the track or intensity forecast. It should be emphasized that just because Ian has become a post-tropical cyclone that the danger is not over. Dangerous storm surge, flash flooding and high winds are still in the forecast from this cyclone. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge this evening along the coasts of the Carolinas within the Storm Surge Warning areas. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the coasts of South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina within the warning area through early Saturday. 3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue through next week across portions of central Florida. Considerable flooding is expected today across portions of coastal and northeast South Carolina, coastal North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Locally considerable flooding is possible across portions of northwest North Carolina and southern Virginia today into early Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 33.9N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 01/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1800Z 37.5N 80.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
