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| #1110568 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 04.Oct.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122022 500 PM AST Tue Oct 04 2022 A fairly concentrated area of deep convection has persisted near an area of low pressure that NHC has monitoring a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are now a consensus T2.0/30 kt. It hadn`t been clear previously how well-defined the system was, but an ASCAT-C scatterometer pass from this morning suggested that a small circulation, with a well-defined center, had formed within the broader trough located over the eastern Atlantic. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Twelve with maximum sustained winds of 30 kt. The depression is located along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered over northwestern Africa, and to the south of a prominent mid- to upper-level low. This pattern should steer the cyclone northwestward or north-northwestward during the next couple of days. The HWRF model is somewhat of an outlier to the northeast and is therefore pulling the track model consensus aids in that direction. The NHC track is near or to the west of the consensus aids, more closely following the GFS and ECWMF global models. Deep-layer southwesterly shear is already beginning to increase over the depression, and is likely to reach values of 30 to 35 kt in the next 36 to 48 hours. The system has some potential to strengthen slightly and reach tropical storm strength tonight or on Wednesday, but for the most part the cyclone is expected to be short-lived. Global models show the system opening up into a trough in a few days, and the NHC forecast shows dissipation by 60 hours, which could be a little generous. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 14.9N 30.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 15.9N 31.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 17.4N 32.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 18.9N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 20.5N 35.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
