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| #1110707 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 05.Oct.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122022 500 PM AST Wed Oct 05 2022 Deep convection had been stripped away well to the northeast of the depression`s low-level center for much of the morning. Just recently, there has been a small burst of convection occurring nearer to the center. The Dvorak intensity estimates have changed little from the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial advisory remains 30 kt. Persistent, strong southwesterly shear and dry air entrainment should cause the depression to struggle to maintain organized deep convection, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low on Thursday. Based on some of the global model pressure fields, it is possible that the surface low may become ill-defined by Thursday as well, if not shortly thereafter. There was no change to the NHC intensity forecast from the previous one. After wobbling westward for a few hours this morning, the depression has resumed a west-northwestward motion, or 300/9 kt. This general motion is expected to continue until the system dissipates in a couple of days as it remains to the south-southwest of a subtropical ridge. The latest NHC track forecast was little changed from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 16.3N 32.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 17.1N 33.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 18.2N 35.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 19.0N 37.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto |
