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| #1110776 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 06.Oct.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122022 500 AM AST Thu Oct 06 2022 Once again, the low-level circulation of the depression has separated from the deep convection, which is located over 50 miles to the east-northeast of the center. Subjective satellite intensity estimates have held steady and the initial intensity remains at 30 kt. The already strong west-southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase further in the next day or so and will likely cause the cyclone to weaken quickly. Most of the global models suggest the system will open into a trough within a day or two. The official forecast now shows the depression becoming a post-tropical remnant low in 12 hours and dissipated by 36 hours. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so while the system follows the low-level flow around a ridge to the north. The NHC track forecast has shifted south from the previous forecast possibly due to the more westward initial position and is on the northern edge of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 18.0N 33.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 18.8N 34.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0600Z 19.3N 37.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci |
