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| #1110809 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 06.Oct.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122022 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 06 2022 Deep convection redeveloped near the low-level center early this morning. However, since that time the convection has become sheared off to the east-northeast of the center and is dissipating. A recent partial scatterometer overpass showed some 25-30 kt wind vectors near the decaying convection. Therefore, the initial advisory intensity is set at 30 kt. Strong west-southwesterly shear is expected to increase further while the surrounding thermodynamic environment continues to dry out over the next couple of days. Therefore, it is still anticipated that the depression will degenerate into a remnant low soon, and dissipate in a day or so. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. A turn to the west is expected by tonight while the system moves in the low-level flow around a ridge to the north. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus tracks. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 18.3N 34.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 18.8N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1200Z 18.8N 38.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto |
