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| #1110813 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 AM 06.Oct.2022) TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 06 2022 A broad area of low pressure continues to move westward across the far southeastern Caribbean Sea, with an expansive area of deep convection stretching across northern South America and the adjacent waters. The system does not appear to have a well-defined center and therefore cannot yet be designated as a tropical depression. However, the risk of tropical storm force winds has increased for portions of the northern coast of South America, and advisories are therefore being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen. The initial intensity is 30 kt based on ASCAT data from last evening. With the low remaining broad, the center is difficult to locate. It`s estimated to be over water just north of Venezuela based on extrapolation, although it should be noted that stronger turning is becoming evident in the cloud pattern a little farther south over land. The track forecast reasoning is straightforward. Strong low- to mid-level ridging over the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer the disturbance westward along the northern coast of South American and then across the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next 3 day or so, likely reaching the coast of Central America sometime on Sunday. The track guidance is tightly clustered during that period, with a little bit of speed differences, and the official forecast track lies close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Land interaction will likely modulate the system`s development over the next 24 hours or so, both its designation as a tropical cyclone and potential intensification. Intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement that a well-defined center could form by tonight, assuming the system is still over water, with winds potentially increasing to tropical storm force by Friday morning. Once the system clears land on Friday, low to moderate shear and warm waters of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius should foster more significant development, with the system forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the coast of Central America on Sunday. The NHC intensity forecast is near a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, although it`s important to note that some intensity models, including HWRF and the ECMWF-based SHIPS, are as much as 15 kt higher at 72 hours. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia tonight and early Friday, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Gusts to tropical storm force are possible across portions of northern Venezuela, Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through early Friday. 2. The system is expected to strengthen when it moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, and interests in San Andres, Providencia, and portions of Central America should closely monitor its progress. Watches could be required for portions of that area later today or tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in portions of the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia, northern Venezuela, Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao during the next day or so. Heavy rains, and the potential for flash flooding and mudslides, are expected to spread to portions of Central America this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 11.4N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 07/0000Z 11.8N 69.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 07/1200Z 12.3N 71.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR GUAJIRA PENINSULA 36H 08/0000Z 12.9N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 08/1200Z 13.0N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 12.9N 80.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 12.8N 82.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 13.8N 86.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 11/1200Z 15.6N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg |
