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| #1110824 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 06.Oct.2022) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 200 PM AST Thu Oct 06 2022 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR SAN ANDRES, PROVIDENCIA, AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 67.7W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF CURACAO ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Colombia has issued a Hurricane Watch for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Colombia from Riohacha eastward to the Colombia/Venezuela border A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of the disturbance. Additional watches or warnings could be required tonight or on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 67.7 West. The system is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near the ABC Islands, the coast of northwestern Venezuela, and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia through Friday morning. The system is then forecast to move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea, moving near San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday night, and approaching the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The system could become a tropical depression by tonight, and is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday. The system is then expected to become a hurricane by Sunday as it approaches the coast of Nicaragua. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches) based on observations from Bonaire. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Saturday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Colombia within the warning area by early Friday. Gusts to tropical storm force are also possible across the ABC Islands and the northwestern coast of Venezuela today and tonight. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through early Monday: Northern Coastal Venezuela...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao...3 to 6 inches Guajira Peninsula of Colombia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches Eastern Nicaragua...6 to 10 inches, isolated 16 inches. Central Nicaragua...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by disturbance will affect the ABC Islands and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia through Friday. Swells could reach Jamaica, Providencia, and San Andres on Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |
