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| #1110844 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 06.Oct.2022) TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022 2100 UTC THU OCT 06 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS COLOMBIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM RIOHACHA EASTWARD TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DISTURBANCE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 68.7W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 68.7W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 68.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.0N 70.7W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.6N 73.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.0N 76.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.0N 79.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.1N 81.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.3N 84.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 14.8N 89.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 68.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG |
