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| #1110848 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 06.Oct.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122022 500 PM AST Thu Oct 06 2022 By definition, the depression may no longer be considered a tropical cyclone. The current convection can not really be considered organized, and consists of a couple of updrafts with an enhanced cirrus canopy due to about 40 kt of west-southwesterly shear. This lack of organized deep convection with the depression has persisted since around 10 UTC this morning. An earlier scatterometer overpass showed winds no higher than 25 kt near the circulation. Between this data and the latest Dvorak intensity estimates, the initial advisory intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. The very strong shear is expected to continue to impact the depression for the foreseeable future while the environmental relative humidity continues to decrease. Therefore, the system should be able to be declared a remnant low tonight, if there is no evidence that the system has opened up into a trough before that time. The NHC intensity forecast was lowered due to the weaker initial intensity. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. A turn to the west is expected by tonight while the system moves in the low-level flow to the south a subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus tracks. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 18.8N 35.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 19.0N 37.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1800Z 19.0N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto |
